Close the EverQuote renewal - its SOW ends Aug 31 and at 0.9 weighting it is the single largest swing in the Sep-Oct forecast. Hometap ends Aug 23 and three of the top four clients have now ended or are not renewing, so next quarter's expected $153,020 runs -37% QoQ against only $28,500 of weighted net-new.
Monthly revenue - actual and forecast
Trailing 12 months actual (solid, stacked by segment) and a 3-month forward forecast. Forecast stacks signed floor (solid), renewal upside (hatched), net-new pipeline (dotted); the dashed cap marks expected + net-new.
Net-new pipeline
Folk Active and Engaged opportunities. Weighted = deal value x stage win-probability (Active 40%, Engaged 10%, proposal-out 30%). Only opportunities with a value entered in Folk contribute; weighted total $28,500.
| Opportunity | Stage | Deal value | Win prob | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paramount | Proposal sent | $45,000 | 30% | $13,500 |
| Jobber (Marketing-as-a-Service) | Proposal sent | $50,000 | 30% | $15,000 |
| ButterflyMX | Engaged | no est. value | 10% | - |
| PSG (channel) | Active | no est. value | 40% | - |
| Zephyr Resilience | Active | no est. value | 40% | - |
| DirectBooker | Engaged | no est. value | 10% | - |
| Weighted net-new (proposals out) | $28,500 | |||
Forecast detail
| Month | Signed floor | Expected | Expected + net-new | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug '26 | $77,200 | $77,200 | $77,200 | Hometap final (ends Aug 23), EverQuote Aug retainer, Athos Day-30 milestone, Jobber final, USAFacts |
| Sep '26 | $34,660 | $58,410 | $72,660 | Athos Day-60 milestone (floor); EverQuote renewal x0.9; Capsule 6-mo re-up x1.0; net-new |
| Oct '26 | $1,660 | $17,410 | $31,660 | USAFacts (floor); EverQuote renewal x0.9; net-new |
| Quarter total | $113,520 | $153,020 | $181,520 | vs prior qtr $241,500 (-36.6%); vs Q3 2025 $46,400 (+229.8%) |
TTM revenue composition
| Segment | TTM revenue | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Fractional | $432,850 | 89.7% |
| Project | $30,000 | 6.2% |
| Coaching | $19,700 | 4.1% |
Client concentration (TTM)
Ranked by TTM invoiced, colored by segment. Top-4 clients are 80.6% of TTM revenue; three of them (AMC, HouseAccount, Hometap) have ended or are not renewing. EverQuote is the only top-4 client continuing.
Forecast basis and assumptions
Renewal weights (applied to months past each retainer's signed end date). Hometap 0.0 (confirmed non-renewal, ends Aug 23); EverQuote 0.9 (High, SOW ends Aug 31, renewal expected); Capsule 1.0 (Ongoing, next 6-month bill ~Sep); USAFacts signed through Jan 2027 (in floor, not weighted); Athos Phase I milestones in floor, Phase II (Medium 0.5) unscoped with no value entered - excluded and noted.
Net-new method. Weighted value = deal value x stage win-probability (Active 40%, Engaged 10%, proposal-out 30%). Only Folk opportunities with a value entered contribute: Paramount ($45K, proposal) and Jobber MaaS ($50K, proposal). Weighted net-new $28,500, spread across the back two forecast months. Four Active/Engaged opportunities carry no est. value and contribute nothing.
Caveats. Hometap's final August invoice amount/timing is modeled at $7,500 (its consistent semi-monthly unit) and may prorate lower for the partial period through Aug 23. Athos Day-30 (~Aug 26) and Day-60 (~late Sep) milestones are signed-floor at $33,000 each. QoQ and YoY compare next-quarter expected against the prior quarter and the same quarter one year prior; the prior quarter ($241,500) was inflated by AMC, which ended Jun 30.