As of Sep 18, 2026, 4:14 AM ET
Get Athos Phase II scoped and priced. Phase I ends late September and its final $33,000 milestone is the last committed Athos dollar, and because Phase II carries no number yet it contributes nothing to the forward quarter - that single gap is most of why signed floor falls from $171,950 last quarter to $147,980 across Sep to Nov. Separately, Jobber still carries $50,000 in Folk against the $140,000 Matthew quoted Sep 15, which understates weighted net-new by $36,000.
$485,800 collected
Jun to Aug 2026
floor $147,980, expected $147,980
+225% YoY
Monthly revenue - actual and forecast
Forecast months are shown at reduced opacity. There is no renewal-upside band this quarter: nothing signed rolls off inside the window with a priced renewal behind it.
Forecast detail
| Month | Signed floor | Expected | Expected + net-new | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | $60,160 | $60,160 | $60,160 | All four invoices already issued - Athos milestone 2 $33,000, EverQuote August $17,500, Capsule $8,000 semi-annual, USAFacts $1,660. |
| Oct 2026 | $68,660 | $68,660 | $82,660 | EverQuote September at the front-loaded $34,000, Athos Phase I final milestone $33,000, USAFacts $1,660. Net-new $14,000. |
| Nov 2026 | $19,160 | $19,160 | $33,160 | EverQuote October at the renewed $17,500 and USAFacts $1,660 are the only committed items. Net-new $14,000. |
| Quarter total | $147,980 | $147,980 | $175,980 | Prior quarter actual $171,950 (+2.3%). Same quarter prior year $54,150 (+225%). |
Weighted net-new of $28,000 is spread evenly across the back two months of the horizon.
TTM revenue composition
| Segment | TTM revenue | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Fractional | $410,100 | 84.4% |
| Project | $64,000 | 13.2% |
| Coaching | $11,700 | 2.4% |
| Total | $485,800 | 100% |
Client concentration (TTM)
Top four clients are 82.4% of trailing revenue, and three of the four are finished: AMC ended Jun 30, HouseAccount ended Feb 28, and Hometap rolled off Aug 23 with only final AR open. EverQuote is the one top-four client still billing. Coaching is shown as one bar because its three clients are each under 2% on their own.
Forecast basis and assumptions
Renewal weights. Ongoing 1.0, High 0.9, Medium 0.5, Low 0.1, not renewed 0.0, complete 0.0, applied to months past a signed end date. No renewal-weighted revenue appears this quarter: EverQuote is signed through Oct 31 and auto-renews, so October service billed Nov 1 sits in the floor; USAFacts is signed through Jan 31; Capsule was prepaid Sep 9 through Mar 2027.
Athos Phase II is excluded entirely. Renewal likelihood is high and Matthew confirmed it, but the phase is unscoped and unpriced, and an unpriced follow-on is excluded rather than guessed. It is the single largest suppressor of the forward quarter.
Net-new method. Deal value times stage win probability - Active 40%, proposal-out 30%, Engaged 10%. Two of the four live opportunities carry no deal value in Folk and contribute nothing, and Jobber's recorded $50,000 is three weeks behind the $140,000 quoted Sep 15, so the weighted figure understates. See the BD Pipeline page for the deal-by-deal view.
Sibling pages. Cash & AR owns every AR figure - aging, overdue, open invoices, AR by client. BD Pipeline owns the live-opportunities table.
Source: Wave invoice history for actuals, Folk CRM for net-new, client roster for rates, end dates and renewal weights. Wave holds invoicing only and no expense data, so margin and net income are in Monarch via the link above. Segments are derived from each engagement type: Coaching, Project for fixed-fee milestone work, Fractional for everything else.